Σάββατο 31 Ιανουαρίου 2015

Farage on Friday: Here's hoping Greece fights back against Germany and her euro masters


 By Nigel Farage

I first noted in a speech in 2008 that Greek interest rates were diverging wildly from German interest rates - and that things we about to go wrong in the Mediterranean.
The architects of the euro thought fiscal and political union would follow an economic and monetary union as night follows day.
The suffering of the Greeks at the hands of the... eurozone project has been incredible - including having a prime minister removed for daring to suggest a referendum, and on top of that, a 25 per cent decline in the economy with youth unemployment rates consistently over 50 per cent.

Allied to this has been a genuine growth in poverty, suicides, and large sections of Greek society remain desperately troubled and deeply unhappy.
The economist Milton Friedman once said of currencies that were trapped inside the wrong economic union: either you devalue the currency or you devalue the country.
What we thought we’ve been watching for seven years now is the devaluation of the Greek economy. In fact we’ve been watching Greece, before our eyes, becoming a third world country.
So I’ve been astonished that no political figure has emerged in Greece with the courage to state the obvious. Namely, that Greece should return to the drachma and a huge competitive devaluation.
Now it seems there are some voices in Greece at least suggesting they’re not prepared to meet the repayment terms foisted upon them by the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the other European institutions.Years of austerity now mean that the annual budget increase is roughly in balance, unlike the United Kingdom. But what is the point of all this pain if nothing is really improving?

That’s the message that won Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party the election last week. He is now in coalition with my friend Panos Kammenos of the Independent Greeks.
My view is that it is impossible for the EU institutions - and in particular the key member state of Germany - to accede to the new government’s demands. After all, if Greece is let off, why not Portugal, Spain or even Italy?

So we’re in a game of who blinks first. If Mr Tsipras holds firm then I think it likely that Greece will be asked to leave the euro before the end of this year.
At the moment very few in Greece want this, but then the day before Argentina broke their peg to the dollar, 80 per cent of Argentinians did not want to break the peg.
The day after they did, 80 per cent were pleased they had. I believe it is the same for Greece.
I’ve argued loudly and clearly inside the European Parliament that the case of Iceland proves that to be independent, to have your own currency, as well as control of your interest rates and public spending, is a better place to be.
How they all laughed at me in 2009. They said Iceland was on its own. Well take a look at Iceland today. Steady growth of three per cent, and stable interest and inflation rates.

A Greek devaluation would be tough in the short term. Cash machines may not work for a few days. But it would not take long for a tourist boom of huge proportions to occur and a massive increase in the price of imports to make Greek manufacturing an exciting business opportunity once again.
Personally I hope that this is Mr Tsipras' secret agenda. Either way, we will know soon.
 

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